Fourth and Long: Playoffs?!? Don’t Talk About Playoffs?!?
Back in 2007 and 2008, I wrote a weekly online pro football column dubbed “Fourth and Long” for the late Football for Breakfast website. One hopes the gentle reader will enjoy this blast from 11/14/07…
After ten weeks of the 2007 NFL season, we are now finished with the so-called ‘bye’ weeks, the owners’ ingenious method of milking an extra quart of revenue out of their lucrative television contracts without the necessity of playing any additional games.
So having crossed the midpoint of the season, we hit football’s stretch run as all 32 teams have played a full complement of nine games. Think of it as ‘Midseason Plus One.’
But instead of the traditionally innocuous midseason awards that have sprung forth so prevalently on the Web in the past week, our focus will be on the only thing that truly matters.
The playoffs.
Which teams have positioned themselves for a playoff run in the first nine games and which have the ability to lock up a playoff birth in the final seven.
Don’t get me wrong, it makes for wonderful barroom conversation to prattle on about Adrian Peterson’s chances to be Rookie of the Year and the likelihood of Tom Brady breaking all of Peyton Manning’s single-season records. But at the end of the day, these records are meaningless to the season as a whole. They are ornaments on the Christmas tree, sprinkles on a sundae. They look great but are secondary to the critical issues at hand.
At least to me.
And since the AFC has made all the headlines this season, let’s shift gears and give the NFC a little love.
NFC Top Seeds: To be honest, the top two seeds of the NFC have pretty much been determined.
The 8-1 Cowboys already have two convincing wins over NFC East rival New York Giants (6-3) and can do away with the 5-4 Redskins this weekend. The 8-1 Packers have yet to play the 6-3 Lions, but all signs indicate the Packers will wrap up the NFC North in the next two weeks.
So the question remains. Who is better, the Cowboys or the Packers?
Despite getting spanked by the Patriots, the media has displayed a giant man-crush for Tony Romo and the Cowboys. And there’s lots to love. Tony Romo is showing himself to be an elite quarterback, the offense is extremely impressive and the defense seems to step up in the second half when they need to. But the Packers should not be ignored. Brett Favre is having one of the best seasons of his career despite his age and this weekend, the Packers not only surpassed the Patriots as the top passing offense, but they may have found a running game in Ryan Grant. And the Packers defense is only getting better by the week.
But the best part of the NFL is that we will find out on the field come Nov. 29 when the Packers visit the Cowboys. Hope your cable service carries the NFL Network.
NFC South by West: The NFL playoff system dictates that division winners host their first playoff game, no matter how weak their division happens to be. That’s a good thing for the teams atop the NFC West and NFC South because they would be floundering in any other NFC division.
The NFC West is the Seahawks (5-4) to lose. And the way they’ve been playing the past two seasons, that’s not an encouraging sign. But while Kurt Warner’s resurgence is a great story, the 4-5 Cardinals seem incapable of maintaining enough consistency to take the division crown. But if the Cardinals do happen to pull it together for the stretch run and beat the Seahawks for the second time on December 9, then all bets are off.
In the NFC South, the 4-5 New Orleans Saints looked to rise from the ashes of their disastrous 0-4 start, but stumbled badly at home against the previously winless Rams. And the 4-5 Carolina Panthers, rudderless without QB Jake Delhomme, still face the Packers, Cowboys and Jaguars. So with a one-game lead, the 5-4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers seem the team to beat. But in a division that might give its title to a team with a 9-7 record, it could all come down to those overly convoluted tiebreakers.
NFC Wild Cards: The New York Giants certainly have the inside track for the wild card if they can stave off their annual second-half swoon. Beating the Lions on Sunday would be a good start. The aforementioned Detroit Lions are currently positioned to take the final playoff spot but their schedule does not work in their favor with additional games against the Cowboys and the Packers (twice). Don’t be shocked to see the Lions finish at 8-8.
So if the Lions do collapse, who is most likely to sneak in the backdoor? My darkhorse is the Philadelphia Eagles who can make it to 5-5 with a win over the Dolphins Sunday. They’ve won before and I think they have one last run left in them.
As for the rest of the field, the 5-4 Redskins lost their confidence after three losses in their last five games, and the 4-5 Bears simply have not been able to emerge from their funk all season.
AFC Top Seed: The 9-0 Patriots, short of a collapse of epic proportions, have the top seed in the AFC sown up. The more appropriate question is will they run the table on the regular season. I believe they can, but stranger things have happened, especially if complacency settles in. Just ask the 1998 Denver Broncos who started their season 13-0.
And don’t forget that the Steelers come to Foxborough on December 9 in what should be a terrific cold weather game, and the Giants host the Patriots on the final weekend of the season when the Pats likely won’t have much to play for except a perfect record.
This, of course, is based on the belief that the Patriots will remain healthy for the rest of the season. But if the injury bug does hit the Patriots like it did the Colts, all bets are off. Imagine the Patriots without Randy Moss and Wes Welker for a run of three games against the Eagles, Ravens and Steelers.
Battle for the Bye: The biggest question in the AFC is who will grab the #2 seed and the critical first-round bye, the 7-2 Colts or the 7-2 Steelers? The Colts had the inside track until injuries crippled their offense. And the Steelers have been playing inspired football.
But the decider may come when the Steelers visit the Patriots. If the Steelers manage to beat the Patriots, the Steelers will take the #2 seed. But if, as most believe, they fall short against the Patriots juggernaut, I think the Colts will pull out the bye.
AFC West: The once-mighty Chargers (5-4) are no longer part of the home-field advantage conversation, but thanks to Adam Vinatieri, they are one game up on the rest of the dubious AFC West. But more brutal games on the schedule and an offense that has yet to ignite means the Chargers may have to contend with a surprisingly resilient Denver Broncos’ team. A comparatively easy schedule to end the season for the 4-5 Broncos means the AFC West might come down to Christmas Eve matchup between the Broncos and the Chargers in San Diego.
AFC Wild Cards: The AFC South boasts the strongest array of teams in the AFC if not the NFL so don’t be surprised to find the 6-3 Titans and 6-3 Jaguars taking both wild card slots.
But the 5-4 Brown have an opportunity if they can recover from last week’s loss to the Steelers. Considering their final four games are against the Jets, Bills, Bengals and 49ers, a combined 11-25, my hunch is that they might just catch the Titans in the final weekend.
Which leaves only one question unanswered. One that outshines even the playoff hunt.
Will the Dolphins break the record of the 1976 Tampa Buccaneers and finish the season 0-16?
‘Larry King’ Ramblings
Going into the weekend, the Brown-Steelers matchup looked to be the biggest game of the weekend — if the Browns managed to win. But win, they did not do. For a while, it looked like the underdawgs might pull it off, especially up 21-9 at halftime. But give the Steelers credit, Big Ben Roethlisberger led a ferocious second-half rally, and the Steelers allowed only a 100-yard kickoff return as the sole Browns’ points in the second half.
In spite of the loss, the Browns have still made tremendous strides this year. This was a team in chaos after week one. Traded their starting quarterback to the Seahawks after only a quarter and a half of football. Dealt with the soap opera of Brady Quinn on a daily basis. This looked like another disastrous season for the Browns and the final year of Romeo Crennel’s stewardship. But somewhere along the line, unheralded QB Derek Anderson led this team back from the abyss. It only remains to be seen if the Browns can keep this unlikely recovery going for the rest of the season.
How far have the San Diego Charger fallen? They faced an Indianapolis Colts team without Marvin Harrison, without Dallas Clark, without Tony Ugoh. Anthony Gonzalez was lost in the first quarter. By the end of the game, the Colts had only 14 offensive players available including two third-string offensive linemen. And after six Peyton Manning interceptions and a 23-0 lead, the Chargers still needed a missed 29-yard field goal from Adam Vinatieri to pull out of the victory. I know a win is still a win, but the Chargers need to wake up from their sleepwalking and start playing hard-nosed football. Otherwise, a team that went 14-2 last year and fired their coach for not winning in the playoffs may find themselves at home come January without a playoff berth.
‘Heidi’ Chronicles
I’ve finally moved on from NBC’s Football Night in America. My new quest is to find a show that will satisfy my Sunday evening pro football highlights fix after the untimely demise of the engaging NFL Primetime two years ago.
This week, Fox aired The OT at 7:30pm. Now, I love the antics of Terry Bradshaw and Howie Long. But 30 minutes is simply not enough time to get through a Sunday worth of NFL games, no matter how amusing Bradshaw happens to be, especially when a good 25% of the show is devoted to college football and the new BCS rankings.
As for the rest of the cast, Curt Menefee is tremendously improved over last season, but still doesn’t hold a candle to James Brown (now with CBS). Jimmy Johnson is a fun addition, but the what makes their morning NFL FOX Sunday so much fun simply does not translate to this particular evening telecast.
Next week my quest continues as I shift to NFL Network’s GameDay at 7:30 pm to see if the Rich Eisen/Deion Sanders/Steve Marucchi telecast is the better post-game option.
Playoffs?!? Don’t Talk About Playoffs?!?
What, you say? I already talked about the playoffs?
You’re right. I did.
But those were my predictions. This section chronicles where all the teams stand right now. Completely different.
AFC Playoff Seeds
1) New England Patriots (9-0): Still undefeated. Still the best in the NFL.
2) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-2): Steelers pull off very impressive comeback over the Browns.
3) Indianapolis Colts (7-2): Colts nearly eke out a win even without Harrison, Clark and Ugoh.
4) San Diego Chargers (5-4): Thanks to Adam Vinatieri, the Chargers are all alone in first place.
5) Jacksonville Jaguars (6-3): Playoff-caliber win with backup QB Quinn Martin.
6) Tennessee Titans (6-3): While they still own the last playoff spot, this was a game they needed to win.
NFC Playoff Seeds
1) Dallas Cowboys (8-1): This team is really good. Can’t wait for the matchup against the Packers on 11/29.
2) Green Bay Packers (8-1): Packers annihilate the Vikings who just last week crushed the Chargers.
3) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-4): The bye week was very, very good to the Bucs as they increased their NFC South lead to one full game after losses by the Saints and Panthers.
4) Seattle Seahawks (5-4): Crushing victory over the 49ers still counts as a win.
5) New York Giants (6-3): Losing to the Cowboys is not the end of the world.
6) Detroit Lions (6-3): -18 yards rushing in a loss to the Cardinals.
‘John Madden’ Wayback Machine
Lost in the excitement of the weekend was the fact that Brett Favre became only the second player in NFL history to throw for over 60,000 yards in a career.
60,000 yards. That’s over 34 miles.
At 38, Brett Favre is also having one of the best seasons of his career, including six 300-yard games. And Favre is on pace to pass Dan Marino for the top spot by the end of the season. In fact, when this guy retires, he is going to walk away with almost every major passing record. He already has most career touchdowns, attempts, completions and, of course, interceptions. But as George Blanda said, if you’re not throwing interceptions, then you’re not trying to win.
As for the all-time career passers list:
1) Dan Marino (1983-1999) 61,361 yards, Dolphins.
2) Brett Favre (1991-Present) 60,257 yards, Falcons/Packers.
3) John Elway (1983-1998) 51,475 yards, Broncos.
4) Warren Moon (1984-2000) 49,325 yards, Oilers/Vikings/Seahawks/Chiefs with the first five years of his career playing for the Edmonton Eskimos of the CFL.
5) Fran Tarkenton (1962-1978) 47,003 yards, Vikings/Giants/Vikings.
6) Vinny Testaverde (1987-Present) 45,641 yards, Buccaneers/Browns/Ravens/Jets/Cowboys/Patriots/Panthers.
7) Drew Bledsoe (1993-2006) 44,611 yards, Patriots/Bills/Cowboys.
8) Dan Fouts (1973-1987) 43,040 yards, Chargers.
9) Joe Montana (1979-1994) 40,551 yards, 49ers/Chiefs.
10) Johnny Unitas (1955-1973) 40,239 yards, Colts/Chargers.
11) Peyton Manning (1998-Present) 39,928 yards, Colts. Expect Peyton to end up on the top of the list when his career is over.
Battle for Brian Brohm (or Matt Ryan or Whoever the #1 Pick Will Be)
At midpoint plus one, it is becoming clear who the contenders are for the top pick.
#1 – Miami Dolphins (0-9): Fifth 3-point loss of the season for the Dolphins.
#2 – New York Jets (1-8): It’s rather hard to lose during bye week, but the Jets did try.
#3 – St. Louis Rams (1-8): A terrific win for the Rams to get the monkey off their back.
#4 – San Francisco 49ers (2-7): Seventh consecutive loss. Might be the worst team in the NFL.
#5 – Oakland Raiders (2-7): Until this team gets a quality quarterback, the losses are going to keep piling up.
