Fourth and Long: Playoff Spectacular
Back in 2007 and 2008, I wrote a weekly online pro football column dubbed “Fourth and Long” for the late Football for Breakfast website. One hopes the gentle reader will enjoy this blast from 1/02/08…
The NFL playoffs are finally here.
After 17 weeks, we have identified the top 12 teams for the greatest single-elimination tournament in all of professional sport.
Eight great playoff matchups in the next two weeks. Or, to be more precise, eight games in nine days.
Then three final games to determine the world champions.
And the best part is that it doesn’t matter if you’re undefeated like the Patriots or barely above .500 like the Redskins and Buccaneers.
Once you are in the playoffs, anything can happen… and usually does.
The Ice Bowl. The Hail Mary. The Immaculate Reception.
The Drive. The Fumble. The Catch.
The Music City Miracle.
So let’s take a look at the 2008 NFL Playoffs and see if any magical moments are in store for us. And along the way, we can see just how my predictions from six weeks ago fared…
#1 Seed New England Patriots: 16-0, check.
I predicted that the Patriots would run their record to 17-0 before falling at home to the 14-3 Colts in the AFC championship game.
So far so good, especially since the Patriots have looked vulnerable in the final six weeks of the season. And the lack of a powerful running game (the Patriots rank 13th) does not bode well for the Patriots in an inclimate weather game against top-notch opponents.
But give the Patriots credit. They’ve taken everyone’s best shot, beaten the Colts and the Cowboys on the road, and done what no team in history has ever done, finish a regular season 16-0. So if anyone is capable of 19-0, it’s Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots.
#2 Seed Indianapolis Colts: 13-3, check.
The defending world champions, even without Marvin Harrison, may be a better team than they were last year. Their defense is certainly improved and they have developed more weapons on offense. But to repeat as world champions, they will have to beat the Patriots in Foxborough, not an easy task.
But if the Colts do knock off the Patriots, no one will ever be able to say a word against Peyton Manning or Tony Dungy again.
#3 Seed San Diego Chargers: Now this is a surprise for me.
The Chargers went on a nice run at the end of the season even if the wins against the Colts and Titans were ugly and perhaps undeserved. But I like the Lightning Bolts in the rematch against the Titans, especially now that tight end Bo Scaife is out for the season.
But before Chargers fans get too excited about winning a playoff game, remember that last year’s 14-2 record earned the Chargers a first-round bye. That’s the same thing as a win Wild Card weekend. So before claiming the firing of Marty Schottenheimer a success, you better make sure you knock off the Colts and gain a berth into the AFC championship game. Remember, not making to the AFC championship was why Marty was fired in the first place.
And talking about karma, is it wise to sign general manager A.J. Smith to a big extension and contract before actually winning a playoff game?
#4 Seed Pittsburgh Steelers: What a stunning fall from mid-season when the Steelers were anointed the challenger of the Patriots and Colts. But a 10-6 record and an AFC North crown isn’t exactly a disappointment with a first-year coach.
Unfortunately without Willie Parker and OT Max Starks, the Steelers may have a short playoff run considering their opponent, the Jacksonville Jaguars, ran roughshod over the Steelers not three weeks ago.
#5 Seed Jacksonville Jaguars: Speaking of the Jags, is there a team on a bigger roll?
Right, the Patriots. 16 wins in a row.
Regardless, the Jags have been impressive down the stretch running the ball and playing hard-nose defense.
I really like this team.
Which, of course, means I’ve given them the kiss of death.
#6 Seed Tennessee Titans: Nice recovery down the stretch to make it to the playoffs, even it was against the Chiefs, the Jets and Jim Sorgi.
In only his second season, Vince Young has led the Titans to the playoffs. Now it remains to be seen if he can prove that the loss to the Chargers earlier this season was a fluke. Can Young pull off another upset?
I tend to doubt it, but if anyone can throw a team on his back, it’s Vince Young. Just ask USC.
Now for the NFC…
#1 Seed Dallas Cowboys: Top seed in the NFC, check.
Unfortunately since their win over the Packers, the Cowboys just have not looked right.
T.O. is out with an injury and might miss the divisional playoff game next week. Tony Romo has been in a funk since his relationship with Jessica Simpson went public. And the interviewing of half the Cowboys staff for opportunities around the rest of the league makes one wonder if ‘America’s Team’ has the right focus for a playoff run.
My hunch is that the Cowboys are primed for an upset, potentially resulting in Wade Phillips losing his head coaching job to offensive coordinator and wunderkind Jason Garrett.
#2 Seed Green Bay Packers: Number two seed, check.
Despite the Cowboys’ vulnerability, I’m simply not sold on the Packers this year. They’ve had a terrific run and Brett Favre has been unbelievable, especially at age 38.
But is it unthinkable for the Packers to have a bad day throwing the football and drop out of the playoffs in a hurry? Not at all. Look at how they played against the Bears only two weeks ago.
That said, with the NFC the way it is , it also wouldn’t shock me if the Packers made a return appearance to the Super Bowl.
#3 Seed Seattle Seahawks: No running game, check. A team that looks great one week and horrible the next, check.
Here is another NFC team that could be one and done or make it to the Super Bowl.
Aren’t ‘expert’ predictions great?
#4 Seed Tampa Bay Buccaneers: I genuinely don’t have a good feeling for the Buccaneers this year. I know some pundits have the Bucs as their dark horse. Not me.
A return to the playoffs is certainly an achievement and Jon Gruden deserves all the credit in the world. But the Bucs haven’t been healthy all season and haven’t looked sharp in over a month.
My guess is one-and-done.
#5 Seed New York Giants: What an inspired performance against the Patriots.
If the Giants can keep the momentum going, if Eli Manning can play worry-free for another four quarters and if the Giants’ receivers can stop dropping the ball, G-Men should pull off the upset in Tampa Bay and might even sneak into the NFC championship game.
#6 Seed Washington Redskins: Wow. Joe Gibbs proves again why he is a Hall-of-Fame coach.
This team was finished following a gut-wrenching loss to the Bills after the death of Sean Taylor. And I include myself in that group of doubters. But four impressive wins later with a backup quarterback who hadn’t played a meaningful down in ten years landed this gutsy Redskin team in the playoffs.
Can they beat the Seahawks?
I have a hunch they can. But even if they don’t, the Redskins have proven themselves champions..
So how do I see this weekend playing out? Don’t surprised to see three road teams walk away with victories.
As is the case with the NFL Playoffs, anything can happen… and most assuredly will.
‘Larry King’ Ramblings
Offensive coordinator Mike Martz was fired this week, chosen as the scapegoat for the Detroit Lions. Everyone’s mistakes, sins and blown assignments were laid on Martz’ head as he left town to take the fall for the Lions collapse down the stretch.
But was it really Martz’s fault?
Not according to QB Jon Kitna. And not according to stats that shows the Lions passing offense as 9th in the league and a total offense at 19th, up from 22nd last year, not to mention the most Lions’ wins in a season since 2000.
If you want to blame someone, what about starting with the worst defense in the league?
This is not to suggest that the notoriously hard-to-get-along-with Martz was blameless. But hasn’t there been someone calling the shots in Detroit a little longer than Mike Martz?
At some point, general manager Matt Millen needs to be held accountable for his failure in Detroit. His career record as general manager of the Lions is an appalling 31-81. And this after inheriting a 9-7 franchise in 2000.
Instead of firing the offensive genius behind the ‘Greatest Show on Turf,’ perhaps Matt Millen needs to take a good, hard look at himself.
‘Heidi’ Chronicles
Commissioner Roger Goodell and the NFL Network may have just pulled off the coup of the year.
Yes, they gave the Patriots-Giants game to NBC and CBS for no charge. But they also turned the telecast into a veritable three-hour commercial for the NFL Network.
A three-hour commercial watched by 34. 5 million people to be exact.
That makes the game the most watched television show of the season AND the most watched telecast since the Academy Awards last February. To put it in perspective, it was the highest-rated regular season game since Thanksgiving 1995 when the Marty Schottenheimer’s Kansas City Chiefs battled Barry Switzer’s Dallas Cowboys.
And since only 4.5 million people watched the game on the NFL Network, 30 million people who never would have seen the game were treated to history in the making and a free preview of the NFL Network.
Whether that helps the NFL Network get on more cable systems in the future remains to be seen. But if the NFL Network had not shared the game with the rest of the world, they certainly would have been the most reviled sports channel in modern times.
Battle for Darren McFadden (or Colt Brennan or Whoever the #1 Pick Will Be)
The playoffs are set, so ‘Playoffs?!? Don’t Talk About Playoffs?!?’ will be placed on hiatus until the start of the 2008 season.
But that still leaves the other 20 NFL franchises whose most interesting discussion are what picks they will have in the upcoming 2008 NFL draft come April…
#1 – Miami Dolphins (1-15): Clinched the top pick with one of the worst seasons in NFL history. The good news, however, is that Bill Parcells is in town and cleaning house.
#2 – St. Louis Rams (3-13): Second-worst record in the NFL. What a humbling fall from the ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ just a scant few years ago.
#3/4/5 – Atlanta Falcons (4-12)/Oakland Raider (4-12)/Kansas City Chiefs (4-12): In a weird twist of fate, a coin flip will decide the third, fourth and fifth pick. If the Falcons win the toss, they pick third, the Raiders fourth and the Chiefs fifth since they finished ahead of the Raiders in the AFC West tiebreaker. If the Raiders win the toss, they pick third and the Falcons and Chiefs flip again to determine who picks fourth and fifth. Whew!
#6 – New York Jets (4-12): Clinched the sixth pick with the hardest schedule of all the 4-12 teams.
#7 – San Francisco 49ers (5-11): This is the pick that was traded to the New England Patriots before the season. The 16-0 Patriots.
#8 – Baltimore Ravens (5-11): Who will be the next Ravens coach?
#9 – Cincinnati Bengals (7-9): Are more changes on the horizon for the Bengals?
#10 – New Orleans Saints (7-9): Can the Saints bounce back next year?
#11 – Buffalo Bills (7-9): Is Trent Edwards the answer at quarterback?
#12 – Denver Broncos (7-9): Is Cutler really the future in Denver?
#13 – Carolina Panthers (7-9): Looks like John Fox gets another year.
#14 – Chicago Bears (7-9): The curse of the Super Bowl runner-up continues.
#15 – Detroit Lions (7-9): An improvement over last year, but closing 1-7 is never a good sign.
#16 – Arizona Cardinals (8-8): Warner or Leinart next year?
#17 – Minnesota Vikings (8-8): Very disappointing finish.
#18 – Houston Texans (8-8): Best record in franchise history.
#19 – Philadelphia Eagles (8-8): Will Reid and McNabb be back for one more run?
Picks #20-31 – To be determined by the playoffs (the Patriots lost their #1 pick due to spygate).
‘John Madden’ Wayback Machine
Aside from completing the first 16-0 regular season record in league history, the New England Patriots also rewrote several pages of the history books Saturday night including these three very impressive records.
Most Points Scored in a Season
589 – 2007 New England Patriots
556 – 1998 Minnesota Vikings
541 – 1983 Washington Redskins
540 – 2000 St. Louis Rams
526 – 1999 St. Louis Rams
522 – 2004 Indianapolis Colts
513 – 1961 Houston Oilers
513 – 1984 Miami Dolphins
505 – 1994 San Francisco 49ers
503 – 2001 St. Louis Rams
501 – 1998 Denver Broncos
Perhaps even more impressive is the ‘Greatest Show on Turf’ of the St. Louis Rams has three of the top ten scoring offenses of all time.
Single Season Touchdown Passes
50 – Tom Brady, 2007 New England Patriots
49 – Peyton Manning, 2004 Indianapolis Colts
48 – Dan Marino, 1984 Miami Dolphins
44 – Dan Marino, 1986 Miami Dolphins
41 – Kurt Warner, 1999 St. Louis Rams
39 – Brett Favre, 1996 Green Bay Packers
39 – Daunte Culpepper, 2004 Minnesota Vikings
38 – Brett Favre, 1995 Green Bay Packers
36 – George Blanda, 1961 Houston Oilers
36 – Y.A. Tittle, 1963 New York Giants
36 – Steve Young, 1998 San Francisco 49ers
36 – Steve Beuerlein, 1999 Carolina Panthers
36 – Kurt Warner, 2000 St. Louis Rams
36 – Tony Romo, 2007 Dallas Cowboys
Just a reminder of how great Dan Marino was, how good Brett Favre has been over his career and that Tony Romo is no slouch either. But that George Blanda and Y.A. Tittle are still on the list from the early 1960s is simply astounding.
Single Season Touchdown Receptions
23 – Randy Moss, 2007 New England Patriots
22 – Jerry Rice, 1987 San Francisco 49ers (strike-shortened season!)
18 – Sterling Sharpe, 1994 Green Bay Packers
18 – Mark Clayton, 1984 Miami Dolphins
17 – Don Hudson, 1942 Green Bay Packers
17 – Elroy Hirsch, 1951 Los Angeles Rams
17 – Bill Groman, 1961 Houston Oilers
17 – Jerry Rice, 1989 San Francisco 49ers
17 – Carl Pickens, 1995 Cincinnati Bengals
17 – Chris Carter, 1995 Minnesota Vikings
17 – Randy Moss, 1998 Minnesota Vikings
17 – Randy Moss, 2003 Minnesota Vikings
Don’t forget that Jerry Rice’s 22 touchdowns came in the 1987 strike-shortened season where he played only 12 games!
