Fourth and Long: Any Given Sunday
Back in 2007 and 2008, I wrote a weekly online pro football column dubbed “Fourth and Long” for the late Football for Breakfast website. One hopes the gentle reader will enjoy this blast from 11/21/07…
Confidence.
Such a critical component of success in the NFL.
But there is a fine line between confidence and overconfidence, especially in professional football where the difference between winning and losing truly comes down to inches.
The Green Bay Packers, the youngest team in the NFL even with aged Brett Favre at the helm, is playing with a growing confidence that has elevated them from a lucky win over the Eagles in week one to powerful and impressive victories over the Vikings and the Panthers in the last two weeks.
The Pittsburgh Steelers, on the other hand, have grown overconfident over the same time period as the media has fallen out of love with the Indianapolis Colts and embraced the AFC’s latest contender.
Only two and a half weeks ago, the defending world champions led the ‘greatest team in NFL history’ by 10 points in the fourth quarter without their number one receiver and starting left tackle. But a loss in the final minutes and a subsequent loss to the Chargers after Adam Vinatieri, in his own crisis of confidence, missed a 29-yard field goal at the end of the game has caused the media to go looking for another challenger to the mighty Patriots.
The Steelers, after an impressive win over the Ravens and an impressive comeback against the Browns, became the fashionable choice to unseat the Colts as the #2 seed in the AFC. Maybe, pundits whispered, this is the team and not the Colts who can beat the Patriots in a cold-weather classic.
Unfortunately for the Steelers, it seems they began to believe their own press clippings. Especially when facing a team with only one win going into Sunday. A team with a full-blown QB controversy magnified under the bright lights of the New York media. But a team come Sunday night, with an overtime victory over the mighty Steelers.
One might think the Jets lucked their way to the 19-16 victory. That the ball bounced their way a few times. But that would be a disservice to the Jets. They manhandled the Steelers, sacking Ben Roethlisberger seven times. Thomas Jones gouged the Steelers defense for 117 yards on the ground, the first 100-yard rusher the Steelers have allowed in 34 games.
And the Steelers still had a chance to win the game, getting the ball first in overtime.
But most NFL games aren’t won on Sundays. The are won during the week. Through a commitment to excellence. Through hard work. Through preparation. While much of football is about the skill of the players on the team, if you haven’t studied hard enough, if you didn’t figure out how to get that extra edge, you are setting yourself up for failure in this league.
The Steelers got overconfident and they paid the price. This loss may be the margin of error the Colts need to secure that #2 seed in the AFC. That extra week that the top two seed gets may be just enough time for Marvin Harrison to return to action.
And the media in their rush to crown another challenger forgot that on any given Sunday any NFL team can beat any other NFL team. Perhaps the seeming invincibility of the New England Patriots juggernaut this season has caused the media to forgot that this concept exists every single season without fail.
Suddenly, the high-flying Steelers have three losses on the road against only two wins. Suddenly the Steelers are in a team in crisis, a team that might lack confidence.
Good think for the Steelers their next game is at home against the winless Dolphins.
Of course, if the Steelers manage to lose that one, then we will really be talking about a crisis of confidence.
‘Larry King’ Ramblings
Being a referee is a thankless job. They are cursed on a regular basis by fans, coaches and media alike no matter what calls they make. Imagine have to cast split-second judgments in front of 80,000 rabid fans, irate 300-pound athletes and apoplectic coaches who scream at you over something that happened in a tenth of a second.
So it gives me great joy to be able to compliment these much-maligned referees on making the right call during the Browns-Ravens game. Browns kicker Phil Dawson lined up for a 51-yard game-tying field goal one week after falling short on a game-tying 52-yard field goal against the Steeler. What happened next may have been a first in an NFL or even major college football game. The kick bounced off the left upright, then hit the curved center support post behind the crossbar and, against all laws of physics, rebounded back through the goal post. As everyone stared in disbelief, one back judge finally signaled that the kick was no good. The Ravens, with no time left on the clock, left the field to celebrate their hard-earned victory.
But a moment later, referee Pete Morelli announced that he would take another look at the play. The only problem? Field goals are not reviewable under the instant replay rules. So Morelli discussed it with his crew for several minutes and took the word of back judge Keith Ferguson that the ball had indeed crossed over and through the goal post before bouncing back. Morelli returned to the field and explained in detail why the field goal was now being ruled good. The Ravens, celebrating in their locker room, were told to return to the field and the game continued in overtime where, as fate would have it, Phil Dawson kicked the game-winner.
Replays show that the referees got the call right. And that is what rules and instant replay are there for, to get the call right. So bravo to Pete Morelli and his crew for taking the time to determine the correct ruling, one that could decide the playoff fate of the Cleveland Browns.
The AFC West race just got a whole lot more interesting. The Denver Broncos are suddenly a team to be reckoned with after back-to-back victories over the Chiefs and the Titans. And the Chargers continue to implode after an especially soft performance against the Jaguars. The Broncos-Chargers matchup in San Diego on Christmas Eve may end up being the determiner.
Has anyone noticed that the Eagles are 5-3 in their last eight games? And now that they’ve climbed back to .500, will any of Andy Reid’s vociferous detractors give him credit for keeping this team together in spite of all his personal issues? The media is so quick to criticize, so quick to pass judgment and cast the first stone. Perhaps these professional critics should be just as quick to acknowledge that they might have gone a little overboard in the first place.
I understand that the Cowboys are 9-1. I also understand that Wade Phillips has displayed just the right touch to keep this team happy and rolling. But asking his team to sign a pledge to not commit penalties? Are you kidding me? Can you imagine Vince Lombardi or Bill Parcells employing this tactic? What is this league coming to?
‘Heidi’ Chronicles
As promised, I watched the 7:30pm edition of GameDay on the NFL Network Sunday, a telecast that runs for one hour, timed to end just as the Sunday Night Football game kicks off.
If one can get past the horrible gameshow-style set of cylindrical podiums peppered with enormous coffee mugs emblazoned with the NFL Network logo, one will find a tremendously entertaining NFL highlights show. Halfway through the telecast, one even forgets that Rich Eisen, Deion Sanders and Steve Mariucci are hosting as the highlights are so visually dominating, kicking in immediately from commercial breaks. It’s as if the producers realize that we are there to watch highlights and not mindless prattle between hosts.
That said, Rich Eisen is terrific narrating the highlights and the surprisingly low-key Deion Sanders adds strong comments only when necessary. Steve Mariucci, on the other hand, is so low-key that one hardly notices he is a part of the team.
So, perhaps, I have finally found my Sunday evening highlights show. Not quite to the level of the classic ESPN NFL Primetime, but GameDay certainly is head and shoulders above NBC’s Football Night in America and FOX’s The OT.
Playoffs?!? Don’t Talk About Playoffs?!?
With apologies to Jim Mora, it’s never too early to talk playoffs…
AFC Playoff Seeds
1) New England Patriots (10-0): Belichick continues to keep the foot on the gas. And through ten games, this is still the best team I’ve ever seen.
2) Indianapolis Colts (8-2): An ugly win over the Chiefs, but much needed. It remains to be seen if kicking the game-winning field goal will restore Vinatieri’s confidence.
2) Pittsburgh Steelers (7-3): A terrible, terrible loss that really takes the sheen off of this club.
4) San Diego Chargers (5-5): They may be in first place in the AFC West, but this team is in serious, serious trouble.
5) Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3): Jack Del Rio has the Jaguars playing some really tough, hard-nosed football.
6) Tennessee Titans (6-4): Vince Young played better than he has all season, but not enough to overcome the suddenly resurgent Broncos.
Still in the hunt: Cleveland Browns (6-4) and Denver Broncos (5-5).
NFC Playoff Seeds
1) Dallas Cowboys (9-1): The Cowboys continue to look impressive even after a tough win over the Redskins.
2) Green Bay Packers (9-1): The Packers are starting to get that winning aura about them.
3) Seattle Seahawks (6-4): Exactly the sort of game this team needed, a good, tough win over the Bears.
4) Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4): The Bucs are finally starting to look like a playoff team.
5) New York Giants (7-3): Much needed victory over the Lions. The Giants are now in very good shape for the playoffs.
6) Detroit Lions (6-4): The Lions desperately needed to beat the Giants as their schedule over the final six weeks does not bode well for a playoff run.
Still in the hunt: Washington Redskins (5-5), Arizona Cardinals (5-5) and Philadelphia Eagles (5-5).
‘John Madden’ Wayback Machine
The New England Patriots have notched their tenth straight win of the season and have begun to move, officially, into rarefied company. Only 16 other NFL teams have started the season 10-0, 17 if you count the old AFL days. Of those 17 teams, surprisingly only seven went on to win championships.
10-0 Starts:
–1929 Green Bay Packers ended 12-0-1 and was awarded the NFL Championship based on their record.
–1934 Detroit Lions finished with three straight losses and failed to qualify for the NFL Championship game.
–1962 Green Bay Packers closed with a 13-1 record and defeated the Giants 16-7 for the NFL Championship.
–1975 Minnesota Vikings completed the regular season 12-2 and lost in the first round of playoffs to the Dallas Cowboys 17-14 on the famous Hail Mary pass from Roger Staubach to Drew Pearson.
–1990 San Franciso 49ers achieved a 14-2 record and lost the NFC Championship to the Giants 15-13.
–1990 New York Giants went 13-3 and after beating the 49ers, defeated the Bills 20-19 in the Super Bowl XXV.
11-0 Starts:
–1942 Chicago Bears, defending champions, ended the season undefeated before losing to the Redskins 14-6 in the NFL Championship game.
–1953 Cleveland Browns finished 11-1 and lost 17-16 to the Lions in the Championship game.
–1961 San Diego Chargers (AFL) closed the season 12-2 and lost to the Houston Oilers 24-16 in the AFL Championship game.
–1969 Los Angeles Rams completed the regular season 11-3 and lost 23-20 to Vikings in first round of playoffs.
–1984 Miami Dolphins went 14-2 and, after wins over the Seahawks and the Steelers, lost to the 49ers 38-16 in Super Bowl XIX.
–1991 Washington Redskins achieved a 14-2 record and beat the Bills 37-24 in Super Bowl XXVI.
12-0 Starts:
-1985 Chicago Bears finished the regular season 15-1 and overwhelmed the Patriots 46-10 in the Super Bowl XX.
13-0 Starts:
–1934 Chicago Bears ended the regular season 13-0, but lost to the Giants 30-13 in the famous ‘Sneakers Game.’
–1998 Denver Broncos closed the season 14-2 and, after beating the Jets 23-10 in the AFC Championship, defeated the Falcons 34-19 in Super Bowl XXXIII.
–2005 Indianapolis Colts went 14-2 and lost to Steelers 21-18 in their first playoff game.
The Perfect Season
-1972 Miami Dolphins completed the regular season 14-0. After defeating the Browns at home, the Dolphins were forced to beat the Steelers on the road, before knocking off the Redskins 14-7 in Super Bowl VII to finish 17-0.
Battle for Brian Brohm (or Matt Ryan or Whoever the #1 Pick Will Be)
The Miami Dolphins have now extended their lead to two-games for the #1 pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. And don’t forget that the undefeated New England Patriots own San Francisco’s first round draft choice. Yes, the Patriots are looking at a top five pick in next year’s draft.
#1 – Miami Dolphins (0-10): The John Beck era begins no differently from than the Trent Green and Cleo Lemon eras this season.
#2 – San Francisco 49ers (2-8): Eight straight losses. This could be the worst team in the NFL which bodes well for the aforementioned New England Patriots.
#3 – Oakland Raiders (2-8): Start JaMarcus Russell now. The Raiders have nothing to lose.
#4 – St. Louis Rams (2-8): Two wins in a row!
#5 – New York Jets (2-8): An unbelievable victory over the Steelers. Bravo!
